Mark Twain once said: “The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior”. In 1969, when the inflation rate jumped to 5%, the best economists predicted that the rate will increase to 6-7% in the early seventies, before declining to below 5% in the second half of the decade. The predictions proved wrong. The inflation rate doubled and increased to 11.5% in 1979.
In 1979, economists chorus ruled that the inflation rate will remain above 10% in the decade of the eighties. They made another mistake. The inflation rate fell to 5% in 1982.
Why we listen to economists, if their knowledge in this case does not exceed ours? We are curious and would like to gain knowledge about the future. If we could read today’s tables of stocks or bonds in tomorrow’s newspaper, soon we would be millionaires...
Read More In 1979, economists chorus ruled that the inflation rate will remain above 10% in the decade of the eighties. They made another mistake. The inflation rate fell to 5% in 1982.
Why we listen to economists, if their knowledge in this case does not exceed ours? We are curious and would like to gain knowledge about the future. If we could read today’s tables of stocks or bonds in tomorrow’s newspaper, soon we would be millionaires...